To estimate or predict a future event or trend inaccurately; to fail to correctly anticipate an outcome or change. This can apply to a wide range of predictions, from economic indicators and weather patterns to the success of a product or the popularity of an idea. A misforecast typically arises from flawed data, inadequate analysis, unforeseen variables, or an underestimation of complexity. It often leads to suboptimal decisions, financial losses, or a failure to capitalize on opportunities. The degree of inaccuracy can vary significantly, ranging from minor deviations to complete failures to predict. Accurate forecasting is crucial in many fields and can significantly impact outcomes.
Misforecast meaning with examples
- The company misforecast demand for its new product, leading to both a shortage in the initial launch and significant unsold inventory later, severely impacting profits and necessitating large discounts to clear out the warehouse.
- Meteorologists misforecast the severity of the hurricane, leading to an underestimation of the necessary evacuations, causing a significant safety risk for the residents.
- The central bank misforecast inflation rates for the next quarter, which then necessitated a sharp and unexpected interest rate increase, negatively impacting the real estate market and creating an economic recession.
- Analysts misforecast the political impact of the new legislation, which then led to an unexpected backlash from the voting public, causing a decline in voter approval.
- Despite promising early adoption, the marketing team misforecast the long-term engagement of the users of the new app. The user base dwindled after a few months, because they had not predicted changes in use patterns and user demand.